England can still qualify for the 2023 World Cup semi-finals?

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The defending champions, England are having a horrible campaign in the ODI World Cup 2023 so far.

In fact, after their heartbreaking defeat against Sri Lanka on October 26 at the M Chinnaswamy Stadium in Bengaluru, they have now found themselves in a near-impossible position to qualify for the semi-finals.

To be precise, England will have to win all their remaining four fixtures in order to up themselves on the points table. However, this alone won't work, as they need the stars to align in their favour to secure a spot in the top four.

England’s chances to qualify for the semi-finals are very low but they still have an outside chance. They are currently 9th on the points table with the Netherlands behind them. The defending champions also have very poor NRR and they now will be dependent on other teams as well.

For England to qualify, they first need to win all the remaining games. The maximum they can reach is 10 points. They have just one win from 5 games and have 2 points. If they lose even one game it would be curtains for them in the ICC World Cup 2023.

If they manage to win all their remaining games, the next step would be the dependency on other teams. They would want Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and Australia to lose the majority of games. Apart from that they also need to win all their games by a big margin.

If all the results go in their favor, they would be very much in contention. But with the kind of form they are in, it doesn’t seem that they can win their all remaining games. The competition for the semi-finals is very high and it would be a miracle.

England will play table toppers and host nation India in their next match on October 29. If England ends up losing this game, then it will be the end of the World Cup campaign for the 2019 World Cup winners as they will remain rooted on 2 points with just three games to go.

The following matches which will take place in the days prior to the England-India match will also play a crucial role in deciding the fate of the England team.

A win for Pakistan and Australia in their respective matches will see both these teams rise in the points table to 6 and 8 points respectively.

If England do win their game against India they will still get knocked out if they lose against Australia in their following match.

Here’s a scenario that would see them finish in the top four:

If India win all their remaining games except against England and so do South Africa (except against India), then India and South Africa will end up with eight and seven wins respectively and finish in the top two.

New Zealand will then have to lose all their remaining games (including against Sri Lanka and Pakistan), Afghanistan will have to beat Australia who in turn shouldn’t win more than one game (against New Zealand), and Sri Lanka and Pakistan will have to win exactly two games.

This way, all five of New Zealand, Australia, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka will end up on eight points, pushing England up to third with ten points.