Cricket World Cup: Three teams one spot - Who needs what to seal a semi-final spot?

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The ICC Men's Cricket World Cup 2023 has reached its final week, with India and South Africa having already secured their spots in the semi-finals.

With the magnificent win over Afghanistan, Australia has joined India and South Africa in the last four, and those three have locked up the top three spots as well.

Australia will play South Africa in one semi-final, while India will play one of Afghanistan, Pakistan, and New Zealand in the other. England, Netherlands, Sri Lanka, and Bangladesh are all out of the hunt.

The only semis spot left now is for the fourth-place finishers in the points table, who will be the opponent of the hosts in the last-four stage.

Three teams are still vying for the last remaining spot in the knock-out stage. New Zealand, Pakistan, and Afghanistan have to win their final league matches and hope to win the battle of net run rates (NRR) to make the cut.

Any team, among the three, who lost their last league match will fall behind in the race.

New Zealand currently sits in the critical fourth place but are only ahead of Pakistan and Afghanistan on net run rate, while the Netherlands could join that trio on eight points if they win both of their remaining matches and other results go their way.

Here is what each team needs to do - and the other results that have to go their way - to finish in the top four and qualify for the knockout stage:

As things stand, Afghanistan are in pole position to reach the semifinals as they occupy sixth place but have two matches to play compared to New Zealand and Pakistan.

Afghanistan currently have eight points from seven matches while Pakistan and New Zealand have eight points from eight matches.

Net Run Rate (NRR) can still be decisive in determining the final position.

Sri Lanka and the Netherlands occupy seventh and eighth place in the league standings standings and still have an outside chance of making the semis if certain equations go their way. Both Sri Lanka and the Netherlands have four points each from seven matches but with negative NRR.

What needs to happen for Pakistan?

a) Pakistan needs to beat England in case New Zealand and Afghanistan lose at least one match.

b) In case New Zealand wins against Sri Lanka, Pakistan needs to win by 130 runs or more provided Afghanistan lose at least one match.

c) Pakistan can still qualify for semis even if they lose against England provided Afghanistan, and New Zealand lose by huge margins while Sri Lanka doesn’t attend better Net Run Rate (NRR).

What needs to happen for New Zealand?

a) New Zealand needs to beat Sri Lanka to stand in the pole position to reach the semis while hoping Afghanistan lose at least one match.

b) In case New Zealand beats Sri Lanka, Pakistan should not beat England by more than 130 runs while hoping Afghanistan lose at least one match.

c) New Zealand can still qualify for semis even if they lose against Sri Lanka provided Afghanistan, and Pakistan lose by huge margins while Sri Lanka doesn’t attend a better Net Run Rate (NRR) with eight points.

What needs to happen for Afghanistan?

a) Afghanistan needs to beat Australia and South Africa to guarantee a place in the semifinals.

b) In case New Zealand beats Sri Lanka and Pakistan beats England, Afghanistan needs to win at least one match by a big margin or win both matches.

Conclusion

Currently, Pakistan’s NRR is +0.036 while New Zealand are above them with +0.398, both on the same points.

Afghanistan (-0.330), Sri Lanka (-1.162), and the Netherlands ((-1.398) have negative NRR which could be a decisive factor in the final outcome.

Interestingly, even if teams miss out on a semifinal berth, a race for top seven finish is also on with teams qualifying directly for the 2025 Champions Trophy.